Argyros Economists Offer 2016 Forecast at Recent Conference
Economists at The Argyros School of Business of Chapman University recently released the results of their 38th annual economic forecast for the United States as a whole, while also focusing on the state of California and Orange County’s outlooks.
The experts are members of the schools’ A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research, and they presented their findings at a conference in December 2015 to over 1,500 business leaders at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA.
Highlights of their forecast include a positive effect of the drop in crude oil prices in 2016. The researchers’ model showed that every one dollar decrease in the price of crude oil will increase the GDP by 0.03 after the lapse of three quarters. The group also noted that consumer spending will be a major force behind economic growth in 2016, and that overall, the GDP should have a growth rate of 2.8 percent.
For the state of California, the group showed an increase in jobs compared to the number at the beginning of the recession. Employment in California in the industries of manufacturing, government services, construction, and finance showed numbers that were below their peak levels. On the other hand, education and health services, the leisure and hospitality fields, and business services showed a marked improvement.
In Orange County, employment in five major business sectors was revealed to be well below its pre-recession numbers, while similar to the state as a whole, health, education, leisure, and hospitality showed healthy growth. The county showed increases in consumer and construction spending, as well as predicted jumps in the formation of households and home-buying activity. Median single-family home prices are expected to increase 2.5 percent in 2016 in Orange County.
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Maggie Boccella
Maggie Boccella, a lifelong resident of Philadelphia, is a freelance writer, artist and photographer. She has consulted on various film and multimedia projects, and she also serves as a juror for the city's annual LGBTQIA Film Festival.
